Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
joking aroundloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
No games played over 6 months.
joking around
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
352 picks · 265 bans
Marci
306 picks · 554 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 212 bans
Undying
279 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
247 picks · 451 bans
Primal Beast
234 picks · 523 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 307 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 110 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% joking around
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:68
Winter Bear 50%joking around 50%
The model gave 50% on joking around — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 44:36.
Model check result
Model favoritejoking around · 50%
Series resultWinter Bear 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1