Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionMmonopolyloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CDUB Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
monopoly
No games played over 6 months.
CDUB Esports
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 8 games
Tiny
Atoufix · 8 games
Marcioften banned
Atoufix · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
Double King · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Mark · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 2 games
Keeper of the Light
Atoufix · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 265 bans
Marci
308 picks · 558 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 216 bans
Undying
282 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
248 picks · 450 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 525 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 307 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 110 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% monopoly
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% monopoly
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:13
monopoly 56%CDUB Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on monopoly — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 20:08.
Game 2prediction missed
monopoly 56%CDUB Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on monopoly — the game was taken by CDUB Esports.
Model check result
Model favoritemonopoly · 56%
Series resultCDUB Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2