Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovawin 1:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Ikunsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Supernova
Hoodwink
sheep · 2 games
Mirana
sheep · 1 game
Snapfire
sheep · 1 game
Ikuns
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 265 bans
Marci
308 picks · 558 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 216 bans
Undying
282 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
248 picks · 449 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 523 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 307 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 110 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Ikuns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Ikuns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Supernova 44%Ikuns 56%
The model gave 56% on Ikuns — the game was taken by Supernova.
Model check result
Model favoriteIkuns · 56%
Series resultSupernova 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1