Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Ikunswin 1:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
SJTUloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ikuns
No games played over 6 months.
SJTU
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 265 bans
Marci
309 picks · 559 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 216 bans
Undying
281 picks · 471 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 448 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 522 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 307 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 110 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Ikuns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% SJTU
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Ikuns 45%SJTU 55%
The model gave 55% on SJTU — the game was taken by Ikuns.
Model check result
Model favoriteSJTU · 55%
Series resultIkuns 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1