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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CDUB Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TiltedBoys

No games played over 6 months.

CDUB Esports

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Atoufix · 8 games
25%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Atoufix · 5 games
20%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Double King · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mark · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 2 games
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
Atoufix · 2 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
354 picks · 265 bans
48%
Marci
Marci
309 picks · 559 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
283 picks · 214 bans
58%
Undying
Undying
281 picks · 470 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
249 picks · 445 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
237 picks · 521 bans
54%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 307 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 109 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:16
TiltedBoys 52%CDUB Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 33:00.
Game 2prediction missed35:13
TiltedBoys 52%CDUB Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 38:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 52%
Series resultCDUB Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2