Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionLLegacyloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mmonopolywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Legacy
No games played over 6 months.
monopoly
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 265 bans
Marci
309 picks · 559 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 214 bans
Undying
281 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 445 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 521 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 307 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 109 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Legacy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Legacy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:19
Legacy 53%monopoly 47%
The model gave 53% on Legacy — the game was taken by monopoly in 39:57.
Game 2prediction missed43:21
Legacy 53%monopoly 47%
The model gave 53% on Legacy — the game was taken by monopoly in 39:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 53%
Series resultmonopoly 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2