Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Gwin 1:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Monaspaloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Old G
Enchantresssignature
RodjER · 7 games
Clockwerk
Astral · 5 games
Keeper of the Light
young G · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Malik · 4 games
Marcioften banned
Dukalis · 4 games
Puckoften banned
young G · 4 games
Bane
Dukalis · 3 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
krylat · 3 games
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
355 picks · 261 bans
Marci
311 picks · 559 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 213 bans
Undying
283 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 442 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 520 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 306 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Old G 42%Monaspa 58%
The model gave 58% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Old G.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 58%
Series resultOld G 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1