Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
ANxJELL ESPORTSloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Balrogswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ANxJELL ESPORTS
Doomoften banned
Asao · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Skywrath Mageoften banned
Asao · 1 game
Balrogs
Centaur Warrunner
drakesh1t · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
ShakaLord · 1 game
Disruptor
ShakaLord · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
DM · 1 game
Rubick
Demon · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
DM · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 259 bans
Marci
314 picks · 559 bans
Tusk
284 picks · 211 bans
Undying
283 picks · 473 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 443 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 523 bans
Shadow Fiend
219 picks · 305 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% ANxJELL ESPORTS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:38
ANxJELL ESPORTS 46%Balrogs 54%
The model gave 54% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 29:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaNaoG
LifestealerDM
DawnbreakerAsao
BatriderÑengoflow KELOKE
54% · 208 games
Tinydrakesh1t
45% · 48 games
RubickDemon
47% · 28 games
Crystal MaidenShakaLord
Game 2prediction missed50:40
ANxJELL ESPORTS 45%Balrogs 55%
The model gave 55% on Balrogs — the game was taken by ANxJELL ESPORTS in 47:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendNaoG
TerrorbladeDM
Nyx AssassinAsao
LeshracÑengoflow KELOKE
51% · 22 games
Legion Commanderdrakesh1t
45% · 54 games
RubickDemon
61% · 17 games
JakiroShakaLord
Game 3prediction correct18:31
ANxJELL ESPORTS 45%Balrogs 55%
The model gave 55% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNaoG
Shadow FiendÑengoflow KELOKE
Skywrath MageAsao
Monkey KingDM
58% · 16 games
Venomancerdrakesh1t
41% · 40 games
RubickDemon
42% · 21 game
SilencerShakaLord
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 63%
Series resultBalrogs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3