Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTITeam Insanewin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TETeam Electraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Insane
No games played over 6 months.
Team Electra
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 259 bans
Marci
314 picks · 559 bans
Tusk
284 picks · 209 bans
Undying
283 picks · 473 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 443 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 523 bans
Shadow Fiend
219 picks · 303 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Team Insane
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Electra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:12
Team Insane 50%Team Electra 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Electra — the game was taken by Team Insane in 33:55.
Game 2prediction missed34:21
Team Insane 50%Team Electra 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Electra — the game was taken by Team Insane in 28:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Electra · 50%
Series resultTeam Insane 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2