Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionNNOSTRVMloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Old Gwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NOSTRVM
No games played over 6 months.
Old G
Enchantresssignature
RodjER · 7 games
Clockwerk
Astral · 5 games
Keeper of the Light
young G · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Malik · 4 games
Marcioften banned
Dukalis · 4 games
Puckoften banned
young G · 4 games
Bane
Dukalis · 3 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
krylat · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 259 bans
Marci
314 picks · 558 bans
Tusk
284 picks · 208 bans
Undying
283 picks · 473 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 443 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 521 bans
Shadow Fiend
219 picks · 303 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct62:64
NOSTRVM 29%Old G 71%
The model gave 71% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 40:30.
Game 2prediction correct36:46
NOSTRVM 29%Old G 71%
The model gave 71% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 39:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 71%
Series resultOld G 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2