Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Inverseloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ANxJELL ESPORTSwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inverse
No games played over 6 months.
ANxJELL ESPORTS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 256 bans
Marci
316 picks · 558 bans
Undying
284 picks · 469 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 204 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 439 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 519 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 299 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Inverse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Inverse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:46
Inverse 54%ANxJELL ESPORTS 46%
The model gave 54% on Inverse — the game was taken by ANxJELL ESPORTS in 58:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ancient ApparitionSlaw
Drow RangerNaoG
50% · 6 games
Skywrath MageAsao
Game 2prediction missed19:48
Inverse 51%ANxJELL ESPORTS 49%
The model gave 51% on Inverse — the game was taken by ANxJELL ESPORTS in 28:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LichSlaw
Naga SirenNaoG
50% · 12 games
DoomAsao
Model check result
Model favoriteInverse · 56%
Series resultANxJELL ESPORTS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2