Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
REDraGEN Juniorloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
YNTwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
REDraGEN Junior
No games played over 6 months.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 253 bans
Marci
316 picks · 557 bans
Undying
284 picks · 466 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 192 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 428 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 512 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 294 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% REDraGEN Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:14
REDraGEN Junior 42%YNT 58%
The model gave 58% on YNT — the game was taken by YNT in 33:20.
Game 2prediction correct29:7
REDraGEN Junior 42%YNT 58%
The model gave 58% on YNT — the game was taken by YNT in 19:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 58%
Series resultYNT 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2