Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empire Hopeloss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hot Headed Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire Hope
Pudgesignature
krylat · 12 games
Iosignature
antoha · 9 games
Vipersignature
Mastery · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
pJonn · 6 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
antoha · 6 games
Dazzle
antoha · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Mastery · 5 games
Visageoften banned
pJonn · 5 games
Hot Headed Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 253 bans
Marci
316 picks · 557 bans
Undying
284 picks · 466 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 192 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 428 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 512 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 294 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire Hope
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Empire Hope
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:54
Team Empire Hope 53%Hot Headed Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 57:39.
Game 2prediction missed29:17
Team Empire Hope 53%Hot Headed Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Hot Headed Gaming in 39:41.
Game 3prediction missed38:12
Team Empire Hope 53%Hot Headed Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Hot Headed Gaming in 28:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire Hope · 53%
Series resultHot Headed Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3