Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Drink Waterwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dmokafarm Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Drink Water
No games played over 6 months.
Dmokafarm Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
350 picks · 246 bans
Marci
317 picks · 554 bans
Undying
284 picks · 465 bans
Tusk
271 picks · 182 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 423 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 502 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 289 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Drink Water
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Drink Water
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed51:15
Drink Water 56%Dmokafarm Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Dmokafarm Esports in 38:01.
Game 2prediction missed33:5
Drink Water 56%Dmokafarm Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Dmokafarm Esports in 23:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrink Water · 56%
Series resultDrink Water 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2