Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovaloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Limitwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Supernova
Hoodwink
sheep · 2 games
Limit
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Victoria · 1 game
Disruptor
Victoria · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Srf · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Xm · 1 game
Mirana
Yds · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Xm · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
350 picks · 246 bans
Marci
317 picks · 554 bans
Undying
284 picks · 465 bans
Tusk
271 picks · 182 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 423 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 502 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 289 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Limit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:40
Supernova 45%Limit 55%
The model gave 55% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 28:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfiresheep
Shadow FiendXm
49% · 109 games
MarsSrf
58% · 139 games
TinyEcho
54% · 72 games
HoodwinkYds
53% · 34 games
Treant ProtectorVictoria
Game 2prediction correct8:34
Supernova 48%Limit 52%
The model gave 52% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 26:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Miranasheep
LinaXm
44% · 30 games
DoomSrf
43% · 72 games
Ember SpiritEcho
50% · 107 games
TinyYds
32% · 18 games
LichVictoria
Model check result
Model favoriteLimit · 60%
Series resultLimit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2