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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Virgoloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Snapfire
Snapfire
Se · 11 games
36%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Se · 8 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 8 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 8 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 7 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ChuaN · 7 games
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 7 games
29%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 6 games
50%

Team Virgo

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
350 picks · 246 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
317 picks · 554 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
284 picks · 465 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
271 picks · 182 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
249 picks · 423 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
236 picks · 502 bans
54%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 289 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 103 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Team Virgo
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:44
Neon Esports 52%Team Virgo 48%
The model gave 52% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 51:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerFortuneSoul
51% · 31 game54% · 138 games
MarciLuciano
Marci
Timbersaw
TimbersawEnryu
38% · 41 game
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenHated
50% · 66 games
Game 2prediction correct44:27
Neon Esports 52%Team Virgo 48%
The model gave 52% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidFortuneSoul
54% · 24 games59% · 52 games
Primal BeastLuciano
Primal Beast
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerEnryu
44% · 12 games
Snapfire
SnapfireHated
25% · 16 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 59%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2