Открытые киберспортивные игры 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydra JRwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HOTUloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra JR
No games played over 6 months.
HOTU
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 246 bans
Marci
323 picks · 559 bans
Undying
285 picks · 474 bans
Tusk
272 picks · 182 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 424 bans
Primal Beast
239 picks · 503 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 288 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Hydra JR
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% HOTU
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Hydra JR 49%HOTU 51%
The model gave 51% on HOTU — the game was taken by Hydra JR.
Game 2prediction missed
Hydra JR 49%HOTU 51%
The model gave 51% on HOTU — the game was taken by Hydra JR.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 51%
Series resultHydra JR 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2