Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
REDraGEN Juniorwin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Marlerino ESportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
REDraGEN Junior
No games played over 6 months.
Marlerino ESports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 245 bans
Marci
323 picks · 559 bans
Undying
285 picks · 474 bans
Tusk
272 picks · 182 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 424 bans
Primal Beast
239 picks · 503 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 288 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 102 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% REDraGEN Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% REDraGEN Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:34
REDraGEN Junior 50%Marlerino ESports 50%
The model gave 50% on REDraGEN Junior — the game was taken by REDraGEN Junior in 43:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteREDraGEN Junior · 50%
Series resultREDraGEN Junior 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1