Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 1:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
beatifullloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 17 games
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
kickeed · 10 games
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Worick · 8 games
Warlocksignature
kickeed · 8 games
beatifull
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 244 bans
Marci
323 picks · 560 bans
Undying
286 picks · 475 bans
Tusk
272 picks · 180 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 422 bans
Primal Beast
239 picks · 502 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 287 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
Hydra 79%beatifull 21%
The model gave 79% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 24:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 79%
Series resultHydra 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1