Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Plan Bloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ybb Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Plan B
No games played over 6 months.
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
355 picks · 241 bans
Marci
329 picks · 560 bans
Undying
285 picks · 478 bans
Tusk
267 picks · 173 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 416 bans
Primal Beast
242 picks · 496 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 284 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Plan B
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Ybb Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:24
Plan B 37%Ybb Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Plan B in 40:11.
Game 2prediction correct11:36
Plan B 37%Ybb Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 33:22.
Game 3prediction correct10:29
Plan B 37%Ybb Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 25:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteYbb Gaming · 63%
Series resultYbb Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3