Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Ikunsloss 0:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Limitwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ikuns
No games played over 6 months.
Limit
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
355 picks · 241 bans
Marci
329 picks · 560 bans
Undying
285 picks · 478 bans
Tusk
267 picks · 173 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 416 bans
Primal Beast
242 picks · 496 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 284 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Ikuns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Ikuns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Ikuns 51%Limit 49%
The model gave 51% on Ikuns — the game was taken by Limit.
Model check result
Model favoriteIkuns · 51%
Series resultLimit 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1