Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 1:3series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Hydrawin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Tiny
Mo13ei · 36 games
Mirana
Qupe · 28 games
Timbersawsignature
Mo13ei · 20 games
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 18 games
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 17 games
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
Viperoften banned
Max · 15 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mo13ei · 13 games
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 15 games
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 10 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
kickeed · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 9 games
Warlocksignature
kickeed · 8 games
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 7 games
Batrideroften banned
Worick · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
355 picks · 242 bans
Marci
337 picks · 563 bans
Undying
288 picks · 491 bans
Tusk
268 picks · 171 bans
Pangolier
254 picks · 418 bans
Primal Beast
246 picks · 500 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 283 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:30
IVY 42%Hydra 58%
The model gave 58% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunapio65
LifestealerKami
TinyMo13ei
Dark SeerCloud
LycanOwnedMe
BatriderWorick
GrimstrokeQupe
TuskLefitan
Treant Protectorjmn-
SilencerHappyDyurara
Game 2prediction correct34:34
IVY 42%Hydra 58%
The model gave 58% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 40:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMo13ei
Shadow FiendKami
Weaverpio65
LycanCloud
DoomOwnedMe
InvokerWorick
SnapfireQupe
DisruptorHappyDyurara
Treant Protectorjmn-
TuskLefitan
Game 3prediction missed49:8
IVY 43%Hydra 57%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by IVY in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainMo13ei
MorphlingKami
Chaos Knightpio65
EnigmaCloud
RazorOwnedMe
BatriderWorick
ClockwerkQupe
Spirit BreakerLefitan
Abaddonjmn-
SilencerHappyDyurara
Game 4prediction correct30:36
IVY 46%Hydra 54%
The model gave 54% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunapio65
Drow RangerKami
RazorOwnedMe
Queen of PainWorick
BatriderMo13ei
BeastmasterCloud
ClockwerkQupe
Shadow DemonLefitan
Abaddonjmn-
UndyingHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 60%
Series resultHydra 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4