BTS Pro Series Season 13: ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 2:3series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Execrationwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Marssignature
eleven · 16 games
Rubick
Hishge · 14 games
Skywrath Mageoften banned
ace12 · 13 games
Tiny
Sancity · 13 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 11 games
Snapfire
Hishge · 8 games
Visageoften banned
eleven · 8 games
Execration
Marcioften banned
Palos · 12 games
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 11 games
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 11 games
Mirana
Shanks · 11 games
Visagesignature
Tino- · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 10 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Shanks · 10 games
Pudgesignature
Palos · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 241 bans
Marci
337 picks · 563 bans
Undying
288 picks · 491 bans
Tusk
268 picks · 170 bans
Pangolier
253 picks · 416 bans
Primal Beast
246 picks · 500 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 282 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:15
Geek Fam 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 31:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerSkem
Nature's ProphetPalos
BeastmasterForce
TinyBob
Monkey KingNARMAN
VisageTino-
MiranaRoddgeee
Nyx AssassinShanks
Game 2prediction correct25:34
Geek Fam 50%Execration 50%
The model gave 50% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanSkem
LinaPalos
Bounty HunterForce
VisageTino-
SnapfireNARMAN
KunkkaBob
SvenRoddgeee
DawnbreakerShanks
Game 3prediction correct44:15
Geek Fam 54%Execration 46%
The model gave 54% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 29:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSkem
DawnbreakerTino-
BrewmasterForce
MorphlingPalos
Naga SirenRoddgeee
Ember SpiritBob
DisruptorNARMAN
GrimstrokeShanks
Game 4prediction correct28:28
Geek Fam 50%Execration 50%
The model gave 50% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 48:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSkem
LinaBob
PangolierForce
Monkey KingPalos
Bounty HunterNARMAN
VisageTino-
SvenRoddgeee
DawnbreakerShanks
Game 5prediction missed
Geek Fam 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Execration.
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 57%
Series resultExecration 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game4 of 5