Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 14 games
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 10 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
kickeed · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 9 games
Warlocksignature
kickeed · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Askold · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Worick · 5 games
One Move
Tiny
sayuw · 19 games
Miranasignature
sayuw · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 12 games
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
Marcioften banned
sayuw · 11 games
Hoodwink
sayuw · 10 games
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
352 picks · 241 bans
Marci
339 picks · 563 bans
Undying
289 picks · 492 bans
Tusk
266 picks · 170 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 415 bans
Primal Beast
246 picks · 500 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 281 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% One Move
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:24
Hydra 47%One Move 53%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by Hydra in 42:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidKami
Queen of PainAinkrad
LycanCloud
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
BatriderWorick
TimbersawAfterLife
TuskLefitan
TinyGilgir
SilencerHappyDyurara
Crystal MaidenPanto
Game 2prediction missed30:16
Hydra 44%One Move 56%
The model gave 56% on One Move — the game was taken by Hydra in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendKami
SvenMunkushi~
Night StalkerCloud
LycanAfterLife
Storm SpiritWorick
PangolierAinkrad
TinyLefitan
RubickGilgir
SilencerHappyDyurara
TuskPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 57%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2