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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IVYwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Tusk
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 12 games
67%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 12 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
kickeed · 10 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 8 games
75%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kickeed · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Askold · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Worick · 5 games
40%

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 36 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 26 games
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Mo13ei · 20 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 18 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 16 games
69%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
47%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Mo13ei · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
354 picks · 239 bans
48%
Marci
Marci
341 picks · 564 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
290 picks · 499 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
265 picks · 171 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 414 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
248 picks · 501 bans
54%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
211 picks · 284 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 96 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total64% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:21
Hydra 57%IVY 43%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendKami
50% · 75 games60% · 42 games
Phantom Lancerpio65
Phantom Lancer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
56% · 194 games51% · 101 game
DoomOwnedMe
Doom
Invoker
InvokerWorick
45% · 144 games50% · 184 games
Death ProphetMo13ei
Death Prophet
Tusk
TuskLefitan
48% · 156 games49% · 207 games
SnapfireQupe
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerHappyDyurara
49% · 57 games44% · 92 games
Jakirojmn-
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed19:34
Hydra 57%IVY 43%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by IVY in 56:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendKami
37% · 50 games50% · 136 games
Terrorbladepio65
Terrorblade
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLefitan
53% · 126 games52% · 91 game
ViperMo13ei
Viper
Tidehunter
TidehunterCloud
45% · 86 games51% · 73 games
Spirit BreakerOwnedMe
Spirit Breaker
Tusk
TuskWorick
44% · 153 games56% · 76 games
Winter Wyvernjmn-
Winter Wyvern
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
51% · 123 games59% · 162 games
MiranaQupe
Mirana
Game 3prediction missed28:44
Hydra 57%IVY 43%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by IVY in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeKami
54% · 82 games55% · 114 games
Ursapio65
Ursa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWorick
45% · 56 games42% · 162 games
BatriderMo13ei
Batrider
Visage
VisageCloud
55% · 92 games52% · 88 games
LycanOwnedMe
Lycan
Tiny
TinyLefitan
50% · 375 games51% · 199 games
MiranaQupe
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
47% · 97 games49% · 139 games
Winter Wyvernjmn-
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 64%
Series resultIVY 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3