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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Monaspaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 18 games
56%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 13 games
62%
Chen
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
91%
Marci
Marcioften banned
sayuw · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 11 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 9 games
78%

Monaspa

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
353 picks · 238 bans
48%
Marci
Marci
341 picks · 566 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
291 picks · 500 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
264 picks · 170 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
254 picks · 412 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
248 picks · 501 bans
54%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
212 picks · 284 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 96 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 70%
Hero pool strength55% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:20
One Move 45%Monaspa 55%
The model gave 55% on Monaspa — the game was taken by One Move in 38:16.
Game 2prediction correct27:42
One Move 45%Monaspa 55%
The model gave 55% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 49:39.
Game 3prediction missed36:32
One Move 45%Monaspa 55%
The model gave 55% on Monaspa — the game was taken by One Move in 54:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 55%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3