Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Tiny
sayuw · 17 games
Mirana
sayuw · 12 games
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
Marcioften banned
sayuw · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 11 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 11 games
Hoodwink
sayuw · 10 games
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 9 games
X3
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
Tinysignature
velheor · 21 game
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 18 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
Zeussignature
velheor · 17 games
Jakiro
dark · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
348 picks · 238 bans
Marci
342 picks · 567 bans
Undying
289 picks · 502 bans
Tusk
261 picks · 169 bans
Pangolier
254 picks · 408 bans
Primal Beast
247 picks · 501 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 285 bans
Crystal Maiden
203 picks · 93 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% X3
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total51% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:8
One Move 51%X3 49%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 31:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Faceless Voidnesfeer
Storm SpiritAinkrad
TuskNattyNarwhal
RazorAfterLife
BeastmasterShergarat
TinyGilgir
Snapfirealone
Treant ProtectorPanto
Lichdark
Game 2prediction correct35:15
One Move 51%X3 49%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenMunkushi~
LycanShergarat
KunkkaAinkrad
Snipernesfeer
RazorAfterLife
RikiNattyNarwhal
MiranaPanto
Tinyalone
TuskGilgir
Crystal Maidendark
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 51%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2