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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IVYwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 16 games
56%
Chen
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
91%
Marci
Marcioften banned
sayuw · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 11 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 10 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 9 games
78%

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 35 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 25 games
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Max · 19 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 18 games
61%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 15 games
67%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Mo13ei · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
352 picks · 572 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
348 picks · 241 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
291 picks · 515 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
264 picks · 170 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
258 picks · 408 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
249 picks · 500 bans
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 287 bans
52%
Enigma
Enigma
204 picks · 680 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% One Move
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total72% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:37
One Move 63%IVY 37%
The model gave 63% on One Move — the game was taken by IVY in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
57% · 63 games55% · 112 games
Lunapio65
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAinkrad
46% · 138 games46% · 149 games
BatriderMo13ei
Batrider
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAfterLife
53% · 145 games46% · 83 games
Night StalkerOwnedMe
Night Stalker
Tiny
TinyGilgir
53% · 283 games49% · 217 games
MiranaQupe
Mirana
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPanto
45% · 57 games47% · 125 games
Treant Protectorjmn-
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct23:14
One Move 63%IVY 37%
The model gave 63% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 47:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMunkushi~
57% · 59 games42% · 95 games
Lunapio65
Luna
Zeus
ZeusAinkrad
47% · 152 games51% · 239 games
PuckMo13ei
Puck
Mars
MarsAfterLife
53% · 369 games41% · 57 games
Legion CommanderOwnedMe
Legion Commander
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
49% · 122 games47% · 432 games
TinyQupe
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaGilgir
57% · 213 games52% · 92 games
Treant Protectorjmn-
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed37:46
One Move 62%IVY 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by IVY in 1:19:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperMunkushi~
47% · 32 games48% · 88 games
DoomOwnedMe
Doom
Broodmother
BroodmotherAfterLife
51% · 66 games53% · 49 games
Slarkpio65
Slark
Rubick
RubickAinkrad
52% · 155 games50% · 235 games
SnapfireQupe
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskPanto
53% · 157 games39% · 84 games
Jakirojmn-
Jakiro
Mirana
MiranaGilgir
54% · 154 games50% · 108 games
TimbersawMo13ei
Timbersaw
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 72%
Series resultIVY 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3