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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 12 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 11 games
64%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
kickeed · 10 games
40%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kickeed · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 7 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 6 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Worick · 5 games
40%

Virtus.pro

Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 24 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 19 games
68%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 18 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
56%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 14 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
RAMZES666 · 12 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
DM · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
352 picks · 574 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
347 picks · 241 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
291 picks · 517 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
264 picks · 170 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
257 picks · 408 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
249 picks · 498 bans
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 286 bans
52%
Enigma
Enigma
204 picks · 681 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:11
Hydra 40%Virtus.pro 60%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Hydra in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKami
54% · 92 games46% · 76 games
Naga SirenKoma`
Naga Siren
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
54% · 245 games50% · 197 games
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLefitan
45% · 160 games57% · 105 games
EnigmaNoticed
Enigma
Tusk
TuskWorick
54% · 252 games48% · 416 games
Tinysayuw
Tiny
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
47% · 108 games45% · 63 games
DazzleDukalis
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed27:16
Hydra 41%Virtus.pro 59%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Hydra in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperKami
43% · 42 games55% · 93 games
Faceless VoidKoma`
Faceless Void
Broodmother
BroodmotherCloud
46% · 73 games57% · 233 games
PangolierNoticed
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
46% · 354 games59% · 223 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLefitan
44% · 201 game47% · 89 games
Treant ProtectorDukalis
Treant Protector
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
52% · 141 game48% · 173 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 66%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2