Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspaloss 1:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IVYwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Tiny
Mo13ei · 35 games
Mirana
Qupe · 24 games
Timbersawsignature
Max · 18 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 16 games
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 15 games
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Max · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
357 picks · 580 bans
Tiny
343 picks · 237 bans
Undying
292 picks · 524 bans
Tusk
261 picks · 166 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 407 bans
Primal Beast
250 picks · 494 bans
Shadow Fiend
219 picks · 288 bans
Enigma
204 picks · 690 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:14
Monaspa 76%IVY 24%
The model gave 76% on Monaspa — the game was taken by IVY in 33:27.
Game 2prediction missed21:35
Monaspa 76%IVY 24%
The model gave 76% on Monaspa — the game was taken by IVY in 43:37.
Game 3prediction missed29:50
Monaspa 76%IVY 24%
The model gave 76% on Monaspa — the game was taken by IVY in 42:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 76%
Series resultIVY 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3