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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
YNTloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 16 games
56%
Chen
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
91%
Marci
Marcioften banned
sayuw · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 11 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 10 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 9 games
56%

YNT

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
360 picks · 579 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
338 picks · 234 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
293 picks · 525 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
259 picks · 160 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
252 picks · 399 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
247 picks · 489 bans
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
219 picks · 291 bans
52%
Enigma
Enigma
204 picks · 691 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:35
One Move 58%YNT 42%
The model gave 58% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 1:03:46.
Game 2prediction missed25:59
One Move 58%YNT 42%
The model gave 58% on One Move — the game was taken by YNT in 1:11:32.
Game 3prediction correct24:5
One Move 58%YNT 42%
The model gave 58% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 24:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 58%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3