BTS Pro Series Season 13: ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SSPAWNloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Mirana
Shanks · 12 games
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 11 games
Marcioften banned
Palos · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 10 games
Pudgesignature
Palos · 10 games
Visagesignature
Tino- · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Shanks · 9 games
SPAWN
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
366 picks · 585 bans
Tiny
336 picks · 234 bans
Undying
301 picks · 528 bans
Tusk
252 picks · 158 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 394 bans
Primal Beast
246 picks · 495 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 288 bans
Enigma
201 picks · 704 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:18
Execration 60%SPAWN 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 38:14.
Game 2prediction correct27:10
Execration 60%SPAWN 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 31:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 60%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2