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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HFwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 35 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 24 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Max · 18 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 16 games
56%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 15 games
67%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Mo13ei · 12 games
42%

HF

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
hAze · 11 games
36%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Kaori · 9 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
ArrOw · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 7 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 7 games
29%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
366 picks · 585 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
333 picks · 233 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
300 picks · 526 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
249 picks · 391 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
248 picks · 158 bans
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
246 picks · 493 bans
54%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 287 bans
51%
Enigma
Enigma
201 picks · 704 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 36%
Hero pool strength56% IVY
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:7
IVY 50%HF 50%
The model gave 50% on HF — the game was taken by IVY in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunapio65
43% · 86 games50% · 36 games
Drow Rangerxannii
Drow Ranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMo13ei
45% · 172 games56% · 166 games
BeastmasterActor
Beastmaster
Night Stalker
Night StalkerOwnedMe
36% · 54 games53% · 120 games
Tusktoshiyb
Tusk
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageQupe
52% · 102 games59% · 168 games
Miranaweebian
Mirana
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorjmn-
50% · 82 games29% · 6 games
RikiSOhY
Riki
Game 2prediction missed12:35
IVY 52%HF 48%
The model gave 52% on IVY — the game was taken by HF in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunapio65
50% · 84 games50% · 68 games
Sniperxannii
Sniper
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMo13ei
46% · 236 games50% · 444 games
Pangoliertoshiyb
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOwnedMe
49% · 148 games47% · 212 games
TidehunterActor
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyQupe
56% · 273 games47% · 113 games
Silencerweebian
Silencer
Bane
Banejmn-
57% · 265 games49% · 169 games
Treant ProtectorSOhY
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct17:35
IVY 48%HF 52%
The model gave 52% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 36:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverpio65
48% · 104 games54% · 98 games
LycanActor
Lycan
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMo13ei
45% · 161 game47% · 33 games
Slarkxannii
Slark
Beastmaster
BeastmasterOwnedMe
51% · 132 games44% · 266 games
Ember Spirittoshiyb
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskQupe
56% · 147 games39% · 44 games
Techiesweebian
Techies
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenjmn-
59% · 75 games53% · 178 games
UndyingSOhY
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 51%
Series resultHF 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3