BTS Pro Series Season 13: ЮВА · BO3
result vs predictionPPPurple Paradoxloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lilgunwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Purple Paradox
Dawnbreakeroften banned
seimei · 5 games
Doomoften banned
seimei · 2 games
Marsoften banned
seimei · 2 games
Spirit Breaker
seimei · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
seimei · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Lilgun
Tusk
ace12 · 3 games
Arc Warden
423 · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
423 · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
eleven · 1 game
Clockwerk
Se · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 1 game
Lion
Se · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
423 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
367 picks · 587 bans
Tiny
334 picks · 234 bans
Undying
300 picks · 529 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 391 bans
Tusk
247 picks · 159 bans
Primal Beast
246 picks · 493 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 286 bans
Enigma
201 picks · 704 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 21%
Hero pool strength55% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Purple Paradox
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:36
Purple Paradox 51%Lilgun 49%
The model gave 51% on Purple Paradox — the game was taken by Lilgun in 28:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenseimei
Lone Druid423
36% · 7 games
Visageeleven
39% · 14 games
Tuskace12
53% · 13 games
ClockwerkSe
Game 2prediction correct12:40
Purple Paradox 48%Lilgun 52%
The model gave 52% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 31:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Legion Commanderseimei
Kunkka423
little data
Primal Beasteleven
81% · 12 games
Skywrath Mageace12
44% · 5 games
SilencerSe
Model check result
Model favoritePurple Paradox · 52%
Series resultLilgun 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2