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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HFwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Water Rune Enjoyers

Tiny
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 23 games
48%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 17 games
41%
Lina
Linasignature
Stojkov · 16 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenix
b1kA · 16 games
44%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 16 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Palantimos · 15 games
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Stojkov · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 14 games
21%

HF

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastery · 10 games
30%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Kaori · 9 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
hAze · 9 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
ArrOw · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ArrOw · 6 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 6 games
17%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
367 picks · 587 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
334 picks · 233 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
301 picks · 530 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
249 picks · 488 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
248 picks · 389 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
245 picks · 157 bans
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 286 bans
51%
Enigma
Enigma
203 picks · 712 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 25%
Hero pool strength55% Water Rune Enjoyers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:23
Water Rune Enjoyers 40%HF 60%
The model gave 60% on HF — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 52:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPalantimos
48% · 112 games49% · 86 games
Chaos Knightxannii
Chaos Knight
Batrider
BatriderPanda
41% · 157 games55% · 66 games
LycanActor
Lycan
Tusk
TuskBliNcc
45% · 239 games52% · 199 games
Pangoliertoshiyb
Pangolier
Rubick
Rubicky0nd
44% · 204 games65% · 78 games
PhoenixSOhY
Phoenix
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMary_y
50% · 108 games53% · 391 game
Tinyweebian
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct28:37
Water Rune Enjoyers 44%HF 56%
The model gave 56% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 52:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPalantimos
48% · 99 games54% · 145 games
Juggernautxannii
Juggernaut
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBliNcc
47% · 41 game57% · 200 games
BeastmasterActor
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyPanda
48% · 350 games46% · 38 games
Techiesweebian
Techies
Hoodwink
Hoodwinky0nd
40% · 132 games48% · 214 games
Tusktoshiyb
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixMary_y
58% · 66 games54% · 91 game
Crystal MaidenSOhY
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct19:48
Water Rune Enjoyers 45%HF 55%
The model gave 55% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 49:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperPalantimos
55% · 43 games47% · 147 games
Bloodseekerxannii
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierPanda
50% · 231 game48% · 39 games
Centaur WarrunnerActor
Centaur Warrunner
Razor
RazorBliNcc
43% · 131 game44% · 156 games
Tusktoshiyb
Tusk
Rubick
Rubicky0nd
49% · 127 games60% · 167 games
Miranaweebian
Mirana
Phoenix
PhoenixMary_y
55% · 68 games53% · 91 game
Crystal MaidenSOhY
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 64%
Series resultHF 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3