IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Таиландloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Филиппиныwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Таиланд
Crystal Maiden
LionaX · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
KNP · 2 games
Nyx Assassin
boombell · 2 games
Rubick
boombell · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Fearless · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
tnt · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
tnt · 1 game
Филиппины
Arc Warden
Akashi · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Akashi · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Akashi · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
Akashi · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
372 picks · 593 bans
Tiny
328 picks · 232 bans
Undying
304 picks · 542 bans
Primal Beast
253 picks · 488 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 388 bans
Tusk
243 picks · 154 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 284 bans
Enigma
207 picks · 718 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 73%
Hero pool strength57% Таиланд
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Таиланд
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:48
Таиланд 52%Филиппины 48%
The model gave 52% on Таиланд — the game was taken by Филиппины in 47:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerKNP
Naga SirenAkashi
Pudgetnt
TinyFearless
Miranaboombell
Crystal MaidenLionaX
Game 2prediction missed24:36
Таиланд 56%Филиппины 44%
The model gave 56% on Таиланд — the game was taken by Филиппины in 35:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidKNP
Nature's ProphetAkashi
TinyFearless
Centaur Warrunnertnt
Hoodwinkboombell
JakiroLionaX
Model check result
Model favoriteТаиланд · 61%
Series resultФилиппины 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2