IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Болгарияloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Лаосwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Болгария
No games played over 6 months.
Лаос
Death Prophetoften banned
Nevermine · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Nevermine · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
Marcioften banned
Beebie · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
372 picks · 593 bans
Tiny
328 picks · 232 bans
Undying
304 picks · 542 bans
Primal Beast
253 picks · 488 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 388 bans
Tusk
243 picks · 154 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 284 bans
Enigma
207 picks · 718 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 73%
Hero pool strength58% Лаос
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Болгария
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:43
Болгария 50%Лаос 50%
The model gave 50% on Болгария — the game was taken by Лаос in 57:19.
Game 2prediction missed29:47
Болгария 50%Лаос 50%
The model gave 50% on Болгария — the game was taken by Лаос in 39:57.
Game 3prediction missed11:37
Болгария 50%Лаос 50%
The model gave 50% on Болгария — the game was taken by Лаос in 25:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteБолгария · 50%
Series resultЛаос 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3