IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Мьянмаloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Болгарияwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Мьянма
Earth Spirit
N1NE · 1 game
Rubick
N1NE · 1 game
Болгария
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
372 picks · 593 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 228 bans
Undying
304 picks · 540 bans
Primal Beast
253 picks · 486 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 381 bans
Tusk
243 picks · 151 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 282 bans
Enigma
207 picks · 714 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Мьянма
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Мьянма
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:38
Мьянма 59%Болгария 41%
The model gave 59% on Мьянма — the game was taken by Болгария in 31:25.
Game 2prediction correct37:14
Мьянма 59%Болгария 41%
The model gave 59% on Мьянма — the game was taken by Мьянма in 30:26.
Game 3prediction missed7:29
Мьянма 59%Болгария 41%
The model gave 59% on Мьянма — the game was taken by Болгария in 24:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteМьянма · 59%
Series resultБолгария 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3