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ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Save- · 32 games
63%
Kez
Kezsignature
Kiritych · 30 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 25 games
56%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
gpK~ · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kataomi · 23 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 22 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kataomi · 21 game
57%
Largo
Largosignature
MieRo · 21 game
71%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 39 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 33 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 30 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 28 games
61%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 28 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 23 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Boxi · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
498 picks · 362 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 226 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
357 picks · 645 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
333 picks · 341 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
317 picks · 230 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
313 picks · 317 bans
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
295 picks · 432 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
292 picks · 332 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total67% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:32
BETBOOM TEAM 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
IoKiritych
51% · 36 games55% · 132 games
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Shadow Fiend
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyergpK~
50% · 6 games59% · 156 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMieRo
49% · 116 games47% · 37 games
EnigmaAce
Enigma
Undying
UndyingKataomi
47% · 150 games58% · 15 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSave-
40% · 215 games50% · 183 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed23:53
BETBOOM TEAM 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKiritych
52% · 173 games54% · 199 games
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMieRo
53% · 89 games47% · 107 games
TimbersawAce
Timbersaw
Earthshaker
EarthshakergpK~
55% · 125 games48% · 163 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Undying
UndyingKataomi
49% · 150 games46% · 46 games
Winter WyverntOfu
Winter Wyvern
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSave-
48% · 146 games47% · 168 games
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 67%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2