PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 35 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 22 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 21 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 17 games
Warlock
Htrd · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 15 games
Muertasignature
bottega · 15 games
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 42 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 40 games
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 37 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
Tiny
erase · 30 games
Chensignature
RESPECT · 29 games
Ember Spiritsignature
erase · 29 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
665 picks · 778 bans
Tiny
546 picks · 525 bans
Tusk
498 picks · 410 bans
Warlock
457 picks · 312 bans
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1116 bans
Phoenix
392 picks · 313 bans
Mars
391 picks · 599 bans
Puck
391 picks · 801 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total50% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Yellow Submarine 50%HULIGANI 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 2prediction correct35:25
Yellow Submarine 48%HULIGANI 52%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 49:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaShigetsu
Lunassnovv1
PangolierRain
Ember SpiritMirage
DawnbreakerATF
TidehunterCorrupted
Batridernot me
PhoenixRESPECT
LionXakoda
Dark Willowsayuw
Game 3prediction correct36:50
Yellow Submarine 49%HULIGANI 51%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:07:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaShigetsu
Bristlebackssnovv1
TidehunterATF
UnderlordCorrupted
BeastmasterRain
PuckMirage
DisruptorXakoda
VenomancerRESPECT
Tusknot me
Dark Willowsayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 50%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3