IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Лаосwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Непалloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Лаос
Leshracoften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
Marcioften banned
Beebie · 1 game
Непал
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
372 picks · 593 bans
Tiny
328 picks · 217 bans
Undying
304 picks · 542 bans
Primal Beast
251 picks · 479 bans
Pangolier
247 picks · 373 bans
Tusk
237 picks · 144 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 274 bans
Enigma
210 picks · 715 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 44%
Hero pool strength59% Лаос
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Лаос
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:31
Лаос 69%Непал 31%
The model gave 69% on Лаос — the game was taken by Лаос in 39:45.
Game 2prediction correct37:29
Лаос 69%Непал 31%
The model gave 69% on Лаос — the game was taken by Лаос in 39:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteЛаос · 69%
Series resultЛаос 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2