?
arrow_backBack to match
Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CYBER UNIONwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 11 games
45%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
kickeed · 10 games
40%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kickeed · 9 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 7 games
29%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 7 games
43%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
kickeed · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Lefitan · 5 games
80%

CYBER UNION

Silencer
Silencer
Arti_Shock · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
Miyaoo · 6 games
17%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
OneJey · 3 games
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
klassnokruto · 3 games
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
dizzying · 3 games
0%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Arti_Shock · 3 games
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
klassnokruto · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
371 picks · 595 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 216 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
303 picks · 543 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
249 picks · 478 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
245 picks · 372 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
234 picks · 142 bans
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 276 bans
51%
Enigma
Enigma
209 picks · 717 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:27
Hydra 60%CYBER UNION 40%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 38:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderWorick
40% · 81 game42% · 41 game
SniperMiyaoo
Sniper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
52% · 127 games57% · 63 games
Visageklassnokruto
Visage
Riki
RikiLefitan
45% · 7 games64% · 62 games
Pudgedizzying
Pudge
Mirana
MiranaHappyDyurara
53% · 108 games37% · 28 games
LichArti_Shock
Lich
49% · 129 games
TuskOneJey
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed11:31
Hydra 63%CYBER UNION 37%
The model gave 63% on Hydra — the game was taken by CYBER UNION in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkDinozavrik
60% · 36 games51% · 106 games
Doomklassnokruto
Doom
Batrider
BatriderWorick
53% · 140 games49% · 73 games
Bristlebackdizzying
Bristleback
Enigma
EnigmaCloud
52% · 179 games51% · 393 games
TinyMiyaoo
Tiny
Tusk
TuskLefitan
53% · 201 game44% · 54 games
WarlockArti_Shock
Warlock
Snapfire
SnapfireHappyDyurara
42% · 297 games49% · 227 games
UndyingOneJey
Undying
Game 3prediction missed48:58
Hydra 63%CYBER UNION 37%
The model gave 63% on Hydra — the game was taken by CYBER UNION in 50:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverDinozavrik
56% · 72 games55% · 76 games
Primal Beastklassnokruto
Primal Beast
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWorick
49% · 103 games42% · 70 games
Drow Rangerdizzying
Drow Ranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
55% · 116 games52% · 132 games
BatriderMiyaoo
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
50% · 105 games41% · 112 games
Crystal MaidenOneJey
Crystal Maiden
Tusk
TuskLefitan
56% · 143 games46% · 149 games
UndyingArti_Shock
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 70%
Series resultCYBER UNION 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3