IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Польшаwin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Колумбияloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Польша
No games played over 6 months.
Колумбия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
374 picks · 597 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 214 bans
Undying
306 picks · 545 bans
Primal Beast
251 picks · 479 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 373 bans
Tusk
234 picks · 141 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 275 bans
Enigma
210 picks · 722 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Польша
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Польша
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Польша 50%Колумбия 50%
The model gave 50% on Польша — the game was taken by Польша.
Model check result
Model favoriteПольша · 50%
Series resultПольша 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1