IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Болгарияloss 0:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Россияwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Болгария
No games played over 6 months.
Россия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
374 picks · 597 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 214 bans
Undying
306 picks · 545 bans
Primal Beast
251 picks · 479 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 373 bans
Tusk
234 picks · 141 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 275 bans
Enigma
210 picks · 722 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Болгария
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Болгария
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Болгария 65%Россия 35%
The model gave 65% on Болгария — the game was taken by Россия.
Model check result
Model favoriteБолгария · 65%
Series resultРоссия 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1