PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Power Rangerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Jakirosignature
aik · 40 games
Tusksignature
Ekki · 36 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 36 games
Marsoften banned
Palantimos · 35 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 31 game
Underlordsignature
Palantimos · 30 games
Hoodwink
Ekki · 28 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 28 games
Power Rangers
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 25 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 20 games
Phoenix
Immersion · 19 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 17 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 16 games
Tusk
Immersion · 16 games
Marssignature
Alberkaaa · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
667 picks · 785 bans
Tiny
548 picks · 527 bans
Tusk
498 picks · 412 bans
Warlock
457 picks · 315 bans
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 1122 bans
Mars
392 picks · 602 bans
Puck
392 picks · 801 bans
Phoenix
389 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:45
Pipsqueak+4 52%Power Rangers 48%
The model gave 52% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 39:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaLowskill
Morphlingnesfeer
Void SpiritCopy
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
BatriderMalik
TidehunterAlberkaaa
PhoenixSoNNeikO
VenomancerHduo
TuskZayac
IoImmersion
Game 2prediction missed39:40
Pipsqueak+4 52%Power Rangers 48%
The model gave 52% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 44:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaLowskill
Lunanesfeer
Storm SpiritCopy
AxeAlberkaaa
PangolierMalik
Slardarnicky`cool
HoodwinkZayac
VenomancerHduo
Treant ProtectorSoNNeikO
Shadow DemonImmersion
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 55%
Series resultPower Rangers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2