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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 26 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
raregods · 22 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 18 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Katsura · 17 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 16 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Serenada · 16 games
44%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 48 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 41 game
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 39 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 38 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 35 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 28 games
57%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 27 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
667 picks · 784 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
548 picks · 527 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
498 picks · 410 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
456 picks · 315 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1119 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 602 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 798 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
388 picks · 309 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total78% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:29
VP.Prodigy 34%Zero Tenacity 66%
The model gave 66% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingcutie
49% · 154 games51% · 41 game
KezKami
Kez
Brewmaster
Brewmastertakizawa
42% · 99 games56% · 118 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Huskar
HuskarSerenada
50% · 70 games51% · 46 games
SniperWorick
Sniper
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerraregods
40% · 53 games54% · 148 games
RingmasterMoOz
Ringmaster
Venomancer
VenomancerJANTER
44% · 27 games58% · 50 games
RubickdEsire
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct18:45
VP.Prodigy 29%Zero Tenacity 71%
The model gave 71% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Venomancer
Venomancertakizawa
46% · 67 games51% · 139 games
UrsaKami
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSerenada
42% · 227 games57% · 96 games
Sand KingWorick
Sand King
Alchemist
Alchemistcutie
51% · 41 game55% · 42 games
LargoNefrit
Largo
Enchantress
EnchantressJANTER
50% · 160 games50% · 202 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Rubick
Rubickraregods
52% · 98 games49% · 114 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 78%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2