IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Австралияloss 0:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Грузияwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Австралия
No games played over 6 months.
Грузия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
373 picks · 601 bans
Tiny
327 picks · 215 bans
Undying
314 picks · 550 bans
Primal Beast
253 picks · 484 bans
Pangolier
244 picks · 377 bans
Tusk
232 picks · 139 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 272 bans
Enigma
211 picks · 733 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Австралия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Австралия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Австралия 57%Грузия 43%
The model gave 57% on Австралия — the game was taken by Грузия.
Model check result
Model favoriteАвстралия · 57%
Series resultГрузия 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1