IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Гондурасloss 0:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Мексикаwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Гондурас
No games played over 6 months.
Мексика
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
373 picks · 601 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 214 bans
Undying
314 picks · 550 bans
Primal Beast
253 picks · 482 bans
Pangolier
242 picks · 377 bans
Tusk
232 picks · 137 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 272 bans
Enigma
211 picks · 731 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Гондурас
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Гондурас
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Гондурас 53%Мексика 47%
The model gave 53% on Гондурас — the game was taken by Мексика.
Model check result
Model favoriteГондурас · 53%
Series resultМексика 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1