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BTS Pro Series Season 13: Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team DogChamploss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 23 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 20 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 18 games
61%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Panda · 17 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 15 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 14 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Sacred · 13 games
54%

Team DogChamp

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 11 games
45%
Marci
Marcisignature
yarintheslayer · 11 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
yarintheslayer · 8 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 8 games
50%
Tinker
Tinkersignature
RCY · 8 games
75%
Bane
Bane
Bloody Nine · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
376 picks · 601 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
323 picks · 214 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
315 picks · 556 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
253 picks · 482 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
243 picks · 371 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
226 picks · 135 bans
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 270 bans
51%
Enigma
Enigma
212 picks · 734 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
Thunder Awaken 51%Team DogChamp 49%
The model gave 51% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
50% · 266 games53% · 35 games
Naga SirenStoneBank
Naga Siren
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetILICH-
51% · 89 games54% · 225 games
SnapfireITALIANO GANGSTA
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
44% · 222 games59% · 188 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Jakiro
JakiroAccel
41% · 133 games45% · 118 games
DawnbreakerHanafubuki
Dawnbreaker
59% · 144 games
MiranaBloody Nine
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed22:46
Thunder Awaken 53%Team DogChamp 47%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
56% · 166 games43% · 48 games
Troll WarlordStoneBank
Troll Warlord
Tidehunter
TidehunterILICH-
50% · 75 games47% · 212 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Rubick
RubickMichael
46% · 131 game47% · 43 games
Legion CommanderITALIANO GANGSTA
Legion Commander
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAccel
56% · 42 games54% · 66 games
Skywrath MageBloody Nine
Skywrath Mage
51% · 45 games
Crystal MaidenHanafubuki
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2