PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 34 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Warlock
Fly · 21 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
Tiny
Hellscream · 18 games
Muerta
Timado · 17 games
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Hellscream · 15 games
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 25 games
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 22 games
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 21 game
Muerta
SumaiL · 18 games
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
666 picks · 795 bans
Tiny
550 picks · 534 bans
Tusk
496 picks · 418 bans
Warlock
457 picks · 318 bans
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1122 bans
Mars
391 picks · 604 bans
Puck
390 picks · 801 bans
Phoenix
386 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total52% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:44
Virtus.pro 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaTimado
Dragon Knightrincyq
SlardarSabeRLight-
Queen of PainNo!ob
Void SpiritAbed
DoomDavai
JakiroFly
PhoenixGH
MarciHellscream
HoodwinkOmaR
Game 2prediction correct17:38
Virtus.pro 48%Nigma Galaxy 52%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaTimado
Muertarincyq
Dragon KnightAbed
PuckNo!ob
BatriderSabeRLight-
SlardarDavai
JakiroFly
TuskOmaR
RubickHellscream
PhoenixGH
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 52%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2